The two key factors influenced the development of Russian meat market in 2016: the first one was the decreasing effective demand, the second – further market saturation.
According to the data provided by the Institute for agricultural market studies, the carcass weight of meat produced in 2016 amounted to 9.9 million tons, which is 4.4% higher than in 2015. The main sector to contribute to such increase was pig breeding. Thus the carcass weight of pork produced by the agricultural organizations makes around 80% of the total output or 2.27 (13-14% higher than in 2015) out of 3.4 million tons (9% higher than in 2015). It’s expected that poultry output will grow by 3% to reach 4.7 million tons. As relates to beef production, the output is expected to remain at the level of the previous year, which was 1.65 million tons. The main reason for it is the decline of private household production. On the contrary, the state organizations show the overall annual growth of 2-3%.
According to the Institute for agricultural market studies, Russia imported 1 to 1.05 million fresh meat feedstock and byproducts in 2016, which is less than 10% of the total meat market capacity. The largest share in import structure or 50% accrues to beef, 30% to pork, byproducts and fat, the rest – to poultry. The key meat suppliers will still be the Latin American countries (Brazil – 50% of total supply, Paraguay – 9%, Argentina – 6%) and Belarus (28%). These four countries will altogether deliver 92% of the meat imports.
Russia may export as much as 170 thousand tons of meat in 2016, say the experts from the Institute for agricultural market studies. This figures doubled compared to 2015. The largest share in export structure accrues to poultry and byproducts (65%). The key buyers are the EEU countries (40%), western regions of Ukraine (30-33%), Hong Kong and Vietnam (20%). Pork and pork byproducts export may double to 50 thousand tons. The key buyers of pork are Ukraine and Belarus, when Hong Kong and Vietnam import byproducts.
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